Wednesday, October 15, 2008

It's The Voters, Stupid: Why John McCain Lost



The pundits are already busy burying the corpse of the McCain campaign, and rightly so. As I noted *before* the market crashed, for all intents and purposes Barack Obama had this election in the bag several weeks ago.

Yet as they heap dirt on McCain's political grave, I can't help but feel that the punditocracy has failed to identify the true reason for his demise.

The autopsy will reveal plenty of candidates for the mortal wound.

The recession and stock market crash clearly turned the emphasis of the election towards McCain's greatest weakness--economic issues--and handcuffed him to a wildly unpopular president. (The greatest irony? For once, the Bush administration isn't to blame for our problems, and has been responding to the crisis in an imperfect but largely constructive and non-partisan manner.)

Sarah Palin's disastrous television performances turned what initially looked like a brilliant move into a major negative. (Though I do feel compelled to point out that VP choices rarely cinch the ticket; Dan Quayle was Vice President after all.)

McCain ran an undisciplined and unfocused campaign, which combined a lack of overall strategy with a pathetic inability to execute and a deeply unpopular focus on negative campaigning.

Yet in the end, the end came because of a simple fact. To paraphrase James Carville, "It's the voters, stupid."

John McCain is a self-centered man
who ran a self-centered campaign.

If you boil everything down, his favorite and most fundamental argument for why he should be president is that he is an honorable warrior who has served his country, and thus is the best choice to be president. His closing statement in tonight's debate, where he talked about the importance of service, and how generations of McCains had served America was an emotional high point, and drew a better audience response than Obama's more pedestrian closing.

The problem is, this is a self-centered argument. Americans don't award the presidency to the most qualified candidate, or the best human being--they vote for the guy (or gal) they think will make their lives better.

George H. W. Bush was far more qualified than Bill Clinton, and was clearly a much better human being. That didn't stop the American people from turfing out a guy who won a popular Middle Eastern war with near-universal support from around the world.

McCain has Bob Dole disease; he literally cannot believe that he is losing because he feels like he's much more qualified. That's why he seethes with anger during the debates; he views Obama with ill-concealed contempt of a haughty and ancient warrior for a eggheaded whippersnapper.

And that's why he deserves to lose. He is fundamentally out of touch with the American people.

McCain portrayed Obama as a self-absorbed celebrity. I'm sure that Obama isn't lacking in self-regard (Presidential seal, anyone?). But he has proven a far shrewder politician.

Rather than attack McCain directly (he has attack ads to do that dirty work), Obama spent this debate coolly swatting away McCain's attacks, and repeatedly turning the discussion back to what the two candidates proposed to do for the American people.

His policy proposals were a pandering pastiche of cliches and vague feelgood phrases, but the viewers at home lapped them up like a (LOL)cat with a dish of cream. Every time Obama spoke, he offered something to help voters. Every time McCain spoke, he seemed to be trying to make Obama seem like a scary, dangerous guy...directly contradicting the visual contrast of a calm, collected, even slightly boring Obama with the nervous, angry, combative McCain.

Where Obama really shows his political chops is when he complements his pandering with uplifting rhetoric that appeals to the better angels of our natures.

When he says, "We're the one's we've been waiting for," he's speaking to the voters. Even more importantly, he's flattering them and making them feel better about themselves.

This is a technique that Reagan mastered, and Obama is following in his footsteps. Nor should we simply dismiss this as a tactic; as Reagan, FDR, and Lincoln has demonstrated, never underestimate the importance and impact of a president who can lift the spirits of a battered nation.

In the end, America decided that Barack Obama made it feel better about itself, and that this was more important than John McCain's hurt feelings.

It was Douglas McArthur who said, "Old soldiers never die...they just fade away." Already, McCain has begun to fade from view. May we remember him as a crusading hero, rather than as the embittered and angry man that he's become.

8 comments:

ven said...

what you said:
It was Douglas McArthur who said, "Old soldiers never die...they just fade away." Already, McCain has begun to fade from view. May we remember him as a crusading hero, rather than as the embittered and angry man that he's become.

that really made me sigh. so sad. Will the Real John McCain please stand up?

alice said...

I really hope Obama does follow in Reagan's footsteps. After thinking previously that he might be OK, I'm getting increasingly worried that he might undermine the economy with misguided wealth redistribution.

I don't suppose you feel like writing a post on how Obama will handle an already tricky economy, and (hopefully!) why we don't all need to panic? That would be brilliant :)

Chris said...

alice,

Great idea for a post. I'll do one about how to survive the Obama presidency.

(Former) Independent said...

Excellent post Chris, right on target with McCain’s foibles and the public’s perception.

I’d add, the Palin choice was perceived as reckless. Obama laid out his arguments clearer, with a beginning, middle and end. The Republican rallies were also perceived poorly; Obama a Muslim…hanging with terrorists….Jerry Springer convention

Throughout the campaign, Obama briefly spoke about a subject that both candidates stayed away from, our National Debt. To me, the issue is paramount. Being 42, it surprised me that Obama left me with stronger sense that he would be more fiscally responsible. Has the party just lost its way or is it my disdain showing through for the last eight years? Time will tell.

paul said...

the more you write off the McCain campaign, and suggest that the election has already taken place and it's all over - the more I think I'm going to get my brand new one dollar bill. :)

"It's not right for someone to decide you made too much -- that you've done too good and now we're going to take some of it back. That's just completely wrong, I don't like it. You know, me or -- you know, Bill Gates, I don't care who you are. If you worked for it, if it was your idea, and you implemented it, it's not right for someone to decide you made too much."

Signed Bob the Plumber, and millions of other hard working, not sitting on our a$$ waiting for Obama to give take away something from us to give it to others who haven't earned it, Americans. ;)

Chris said...

Paul,

I'm not sure that an Obama presidency will be a good thing, but it is a sure thing.

As alice suggested, I'll try to post more about the potential dangers of an Obama presidency.

One stat that should send shivers down everyone's spine is that Obama's tax plan would result in 44% of Americans paying no federal taxes, or receiving checks from the IRS.

In other words, he'll be soaking the rich.

If you can bribe 44% of Americans to vote for you, you don't need to do that well with the rest of the population to win re-election.

paul said...

knowing this and so many other terrible things about the man ... why, why, WHY be for him? I just don't get it. (shakes head in dismay)

Anonymous said...

Everyone who lets McCain tell them what Obama's tax policy is too lazy to do the research for themself. I know sucking up the campaign sound bites is easier than doing the real homework.

Then again, John McCain did oppose the recent education benefits for Vets, but was too busy to actaully vote, then he took credit for its passage. Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus.

Carville is right. It's the voters, stupid. But its never about the stupid voters.