One of the perils of living a portfolio life is the need to decide how to allocate your time and energy among potential initiatives. The challenge is that most initiatives are full of uncertainty. In an effort to structure my thinking about my own life, I decided to create a classic chart, with one axis representing the level of personal control I had over the outcome, and the other the expected value.
I dealt with the uncertainty over outcomes by creating a bar that I thought was roughly equivalent to the 20th and 80th percentile outcomes, and added a yellow star to indicate the median outcome. Here is the chart:
How does your own life look?